Résumé
W. Christopher : We must try to end the fighting and preempt the RPF from obtaining a military victory that might allow them to impose a Government on the Rwandan People. Even with a military "victory", the RPF will probably be unable to govern the overwhelmingly hutu population and will have to accept powersharing.
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TO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 8244-8245 IMMEDIATE
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AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1110AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 9183AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3889AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 2030-2031 IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
AMEMBASSY BONN 2618AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1008AMEMBASSY CAIRO 9404AMEMBASSY PARIS 3455AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 4635CONFIDENTIALSTATE 098062
BUJ PLS PASS TO AMB. RAWSON; YAOUNDE FOR DATT
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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, TZ, RW
SUBJECT: DEMARCHE ON RECONVENING ARUSHA TALKS
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
ACTION REQUEST
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: JOHN L MILLS
DATE/CASE ID: 05 NOV 2008 200103014
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2. WITH THE RPF MOVING ON KIGALI AND RWANDA TORN BY
VIOLENCE, IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT SOME EFFORT BE MADE TO
STOP THE VIOLENCE, RESUME THE DIALOGUE, AND SEEK TO
RESUSCITATE THE ARUSHA PROCESS, IF THAT IS STILL
POSSIBLE. POST IS INSTRUCTED TO SEEK A MEETING WITH PRES.
MWINYI AT THE EARLIEST OPPORTUNITY TO:
- - ASK THE PRESIDENT HOW HE SEES THE SITUATION ON THE
GROUND IN RWANDA AND WHERE HE BELIEVES IT IS HEADED.
-- EXPRESS OUR BELIEF THAT THE PRINCIPLES BEHIND ARUSHA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUIDE ANY POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS.
-- ASK HIM WHETHER HE BELIEVES THE ARUSHA ACCORDS CAN
STILL BE IMPLEMENTED OR MIGHT FORM THE BASIS FOR A FUTURE
POLITICAL SETTLEMENT.
-- URGE HIM TO CONVOKE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PROVISIONAL
RWANDAN GOVERNMENT, THE RPF, AND THE OBSERVER COUNTRIES TO
ARUSHA FOR RENEWED PEACE TALKS.
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IN MAKING THIS DEMARCHE, POST MAY DRAW ON THE FOLLOWING
BACKGROUND AND TALKING POINTS:
BACKGROUND
3. THE NEW RWANDAN GOVERNMENT HAS REAFFIRMED ITS SUPPORT
FOR THE ARUSHA PROCESS AND HAS SHOWN A WILLINGNESS TO
NEGOTIATE A NEW CEASE FIRE AND RESUME TALKS WITH THE RPF
WITH A VIEW TOWARD INSTALLING THE BROAD-EASED TRANSITIONAL
GOVERNMENT PROVIDED FOR IN THE ARUSHA ACCORDS. ALTHOUGH
THE RPF HAS STATED THAT THEY STILL PLAN TO FORM A
BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT LEADING TO FREE ELECTIONS, AS
CALLED FOR BY THE ARUSHA ACCORDS, THEY HAVE SHOWN NO
DESIRE TO TALK AND REJECT ANY CEASE FIRE EXCEPT PERHAPS TO
FACILITATE EVACUATION OF FOREIGNERS. THE RPF HAS THE
MILITARY MOMENTUM AND HAS PUBLICLY REJECTED THE LEGITIMACY
OF THE NEW RWANDAN GOVERNMENT AND APPARENTLY PLANS TO TAKE
KIGALI AND "RESTORE ORDER".
4.
WHILE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THE RPF TO COME TO
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THE TABLE AT ARUSHA UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS AN OBLIGATION TO TRY. WE MUST
TRY TO END THE FIGHTING AND PREEMPT THE RPF FROM OBTAINING
A MILITARY VICTORY THAT MIGHT ALLOW THEM TO IMPOSE A
GOVERNMENT ON THE RWANDAN PEOPLE. EVEN WITH A MILITARY
"VICTORY", THE RPF WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GOVERN THE
OVERWHELMINGLY HUTU POPULATION AND WILL HAVE TO ACCEPT
POWERSHARING. THE RPF RECOGNIZES THIS AND THUS MAY BE
WILLING TO RETURN TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE DESPITE THEIR
APPARENT MOMENTUM ON THE BATTLEFIELD.
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STATE 098062 140708Z
TALKING POINTS
5. BELOW ARE TALKING POINTS FOR MEETING WITH MWINYI:
-- WE WOULD BE INTERESTED TO KNOW HOW YOU SEE THE CURRENT
SITUATION IN RWANDA AND WHERE YOU BELIEVE IT IS HEADED.
-- IN LIGHT OF THE CHANGED CIRCUMSTANCES, DO YOU BELIEVE
THAT THE ARUSHA ACCORDS CAN STILL BE IMPLEMENTED OR AT
LEAST SERVE AS A BASIS FOR RENEWED DISCUSSIONS ON A
POLITICAL SETTLEMENT?
,- THE RENEWED WAR IN RWANDA IS CAUSING MASSIVE
HUMANITARIAN SUFFERING AND THREATENS THE STABILITY OF THE
ENTIRE SUBREGION.
-- IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MAKE
AN EFFORT TO END THE FIGHTING AND RETURN THE PARTIES TO
THE ARUSHA PROCESS.
-- THE ARUSHA PROCESS HAS BROUGHT SUCCESS IN THE PAST
EVEN WHEN IT APPEARED THAT THE PEACE PROCESS HAD STALLED
OR BROKEN DOWN.
-- DESPITE THE APPARENT EXECUTIONS OF SEVERAL POLITICAL
LEADERS AND THE DRAMATIC CHANGES ON THE MILITARY FRONT, WE
BELIEVE THAT THE ARUSHA PROCESS IS STILL VIABLE AND IS IN
FACT THE ONLY SOLUTION POSSIBLE FOR RWANDA.
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-- THE CONTRIBUTION OF YOUR GOVERNMENT TO THE RWANDAN
PEACE PROCESS HAS BEEN ENORMOUS. WE MUST BUILD ON THAT
PROCESS AND CANNOT LET THOSE EFFORTS GO TO WASTE.
-- FOR THESE REASONS, WE URGE YOU TO RECONVENE THE ARUSHA
TALKS IMMEDIATELY AND CONVOKE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE
RWANDAN GOVERNMENT AND THE RPF, ALONG WITH THE OBSERVER
COUNTRIES.
-- THE FIRST PRIORITY WILL BE TO NEGOTIATE AN IMMEDIATE
CEASE FIRE. AFTER THAT, WE BELIEVE THE PARTIES SHOULD
NDERTAKE TALKS DESIGNED TO INSTALL A BROAD-BASED
TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT CONSISTENT WITH THE PRINCIPLES
EMBODIED IN THE ARUSHA AGREEMENT.
6. INFO ADDRESSEES ARE ENCOURAGED TO SHARE OUR STRATEGY
WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS/OAU/UN.
7. BUJUMBURA - MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.
CHRISTOPHER
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